How fickle the football gods can be eh!
Only four games ago, even the long confirmed cynical such as myself were believing the worm had turned. A superb run of results since that disastrous defeat to Sassuolo saw us flow through 19 games unbeaten, 4 draws and 15 victories. Which lifted us to a strong 2nd spot in the table, even briefly flirting with top position. I had sincerely began to feel and write that for the first time in many moons I was experiencing sensations that we may well be recovering a side to be proud of, to feel connected to and excited by. This felt good, when starved of such magical sparks of potential for far too long.
Admittedly, I was warned by a small handful of old pros, that my enthusiasm may be short-lived…I did listen, I just refused to agree, so great and easily persuaded to hope for the incredible, remains my heart ruling my head, on and off the field unfortunately.
The Empoli performance and result I had so very much wanted to be a mere blip. This proved forlorn, for it was the beginning of a run which saw us take 2 points from 12 on offer. Not that I expected us to beat Inter – they are stronger, far more balanced, and perhaps more cavalier and adventurously coached to their strengths than our crowd. Yet the subsequent loss to Udinese and chaotic draw in Verona were indicative of slump, so severe and sudden, that those fruits blossoming of a potential scudetto challenge were quickly found to be dead on the vine….
Where does this leave us?
Well…AC have recovered from their own dip in form and despite the curious, entertaining loss to plucky Monza of late, now look serious challengers for 2nd spot.
My own prediction for this season was that we would battle for a top four spot. My hopes were that we would find a new system that worked and seemed to play to our strengths, players performing regularly to their expected levels, even a few developing beyond this.
It is probably required of me to explain that my inklings of the tail-end of Andrea Agnelli’s tenure as President was that the club was left in a complete shambles. A disaster had taken place in slow motion since mid 2018. The removal of Beppe Marrota and signing of Ronaldo was the catalyst for a series of awful moves which peaked with the resignation of the whole board last year. Too many of the wrong people were put in key roles.
The shock waves of this period of instability are still being felt at the club, especially on the financial footing with the lingering threat of another EU10m fine from UEFA and our debts – whilst improved – remaining substantial enough to likely demand some major sales in order for us to invest any significant fees during the coming Summer. I am unsure if many fans believe this. And I may be entirely mistaken, but what has long seemed the case is that Elkann has charged the new BoD with primairly cutting costs, cleaning up the mess left by his cousin of how competently the club is managed. There will be no mega hand-outs to fund a transfer war chest, he wants the club run more professionally. On one hand balancing the books is a key focus, yet to do so, we also need to achieve certain sporting goals such as CL qualification.
There is also the curious FIFA Club World Cup to consider, where Inter have already qualified and our own prospective involvement depending now on how Napoli fare in the 2nd leg of the tightly poised CL tie with Barca. If they get through, we are likely to become usurped, if they do not, we will be heading to the US in the summer of 2025 for the inaguaral 32 team format of the tournament. The Club World Cup is then set to be staged every four years. Qualification alone is expected to award participating clubs EU50m, with the eventual winners earning up to EU100m.
Hopefully we can add that money to the expected CL qualification, that competition expanding to a 36 team format and guaranteeing approximately EU20m just for qualifying to the group stage. Manage to progress to the last 16 earns Eu11m, the quarters Eu12.5m, the semis EU15m, the final EU20m. Winning the ultimate prize delivers a EU25m bonus on top.
It is clearly imperative that we are in this tournament next season. Ideally also the Club World Cup, though that is very much out of our hands. With the added revenue we can further cut our debts and also invest in some upgrades to key areas of the squad, though still I assume some painful sales will be needed. Participation in these competitions also helps to attract players who want to feature on the biggest stages, in the top competitions.
Whilst we have to accept we can no longer compete for the upper tier of established talent, our name and storied history continues to hold allure. As I highlight the positives I must add the clear and demonstrable focus of investing in promising youth talent, as seen with a recent flurry of interesting signings>
Tiago Djalo 3m (could rise to 6m) CB – Lille – 23 years old
Pedro Felipe Loan – CB – Palmeiras – 19 years old
Vasilije Adzic – AM – Buducnost Podgorica – 17 years old
Francisco Barido – AM/SS – Boca Juniors – 15 years old
(Fees TBC)
Through this recent sinking from all too quickly soaring hopes of an unexpectedly swift retturn to greatness, it may help to consider we will most likely be finding Fagioli return to the squad for next season. Possibly also the impressive Matias Soule and Dean Hujisen, both currently impressing out on loan. A quick mention also of Facundo Gonzalez, whose entry into the first XI at Samp earlier this season led to strong upturn in their results. The 20 year old CB is highly thought of and quickly finding his feet in italian football. And do not discount Enzo Barrenechea…The Frosinone director recently remarking that so expansive and solid the midfielder’s development, that he sees him as surely part of the Argentina squad within the next couple of years. As luck would have it, are we not in need of a natural DM backup/challenger to Locatelli?
The debate over whether Max should stay or go will doubtless rage on until the announcement comes – I presume at the end of the season – confirming the decision either way. In his defence, he lost two of his leading CMs for most the season and our financial restraints restricted us to signing solely one new player last Summer in Timothy Weah, a utility option from mid table Ligue Un club Lille. Fees were due for Locatelli, Milik and Kean. That hardly represents a major backing for a serious assault on the scudetto.
Essentially I am stating the facts of a club in austerity mode, still working to vastly cut the tremendous wage bill engineered by Paratici and his chums in a period when there seems to have been zero checks and balances from the top down. This legacy has no quick fix and is assuredly still shackling the club far beyond what some of the more hysterical followers expect of us.
Max has come in during a period is appalling instability, to manage a poorly built, overpaid squad lacking balance and natural leaders, with the club finances in dissaray and a slow process of renovation taking place from top to bottom of the club. I believe it is fair to conclude we have shown some better form this season and reasonable to place our upper echelons of aspirations of success towards 2nd spot and the coppa italia. We remain in the fight for both of these targets. With the minimum demand of finishing top four looking, whilst not assured, certainly likely.
Many of us, when pushed and considering the strength of Inter – for whom Beppe has performed admirable work as has the relatively unsung Inzaghi – would agree with these targets. Some even cling firm to the acceptance of the shambles we became in recent years and praise Max for his relative success of late. There is another camp of course, not quite the hysterical ranting ALLEGRI OUT after any slight slip-up brigade, but in the middle. Which is probably where I find myself.
My own measures of a manager, and his/our progress are usually>
- How many of our players perform consistently?
- How many are developing into better players?
- Are we often the sum of our parts?
There is a fair argument to suggest Max is using many youngsters and the experience is helping them develop. This has some merit, though none of them feature in the very small list of consistent performers in the squad. Tek and Bremer are the only two whose form has not peaked and suffered troughs, they have been very steady, with Bremer possibly even improving. Rugani could be in that group as I don’t recall seeing him offer a poor game, though he does not play regularly.
Others have enjoyed periods of looking more impressive; mainly Locatelli, McKennie, Dusan and Cambiaso. We seem a side who go through various periods, rather than steadily building steam. This could be simply the sign of an inexperienced squad but we have internationals in every position on the field, many on the bench. More likely is that a mixture of reasons are responsible.
The nut of the matter is that I believe, despite the squad’s absence of mega stars we do possess enough quality to be finishing in the top four, in what is a fairly weak Serie A which neither attracts nor discovers, nurtures then sells on a major contingent of the brightest talents available. So I agree that Max has performed okay. In fact, given the off field issues and financial constraints, he has done well enough to keep us on an even keel without any major reinforcements this last season.
I also suggest that his achievements could be matched by plenty of other managers who are demonstrating they can do more with less…It has long been the way of the game that bigger clubs seeking a change sometimes look to up and coming managers who have exceeded expectations at smaller clubs. Sometimes they bring their same model to the bigger stage and it works, often it does not. It is a calculated risk.
Are we nearing that time when Giuntoli and company need to take that calculated risk? As the only sporting director of any demonstrable expertise at the club I presume CG has a major say in the direction we take. His background at Napoli was building tecnically gifted, high intensity hungry sides always playing on the front foot, with coaches to fit that ethos. Surely some of this he brings to Juve? And if so, how can it possibly fit the pragmatic, attritional, cagey football Max has deployed by design for much of this season (not all).
The answer I suspect is that Allegri remains a trusty hand at the wheel. A perfect company man who will never speak out against the club and who can also be relied upon for navigating through stormy waters, not to emerge glorious nor to emerge with the sails of our ship and hull swiss-cheesed; somewhere in between. Intact. Safe. A sure bet.
We might need another season focused first and foremost on steady and sure. I hope not, because I think we all know that Max is not the long term future of whatever we hope the side to become.
Briefly on some other mutterings doing the rounds…
Chiesa
With his contract expiring at the end of next season it is imperative that the club find agreement on an extension or sell him this Summer. There can be no other options. Some have suggested that he has been offered a renewal at a lower wage, with bonuses to top up for sporting (and possibly availability) achievements. In hindsight it seemed overly optimistic to expect he would return this season to top form. The reality has been that he has shown brief flashes of his best and often struggled since recovering from his ACL injury.
He has not been poor just disappointing. I refuse to buy into the condemnation some are rambling towards the player, due to his alleged not confirmed demands of a wage increase. He may have better offers elsewhere. He may find other projects more interesting. It is his prerogative to choose the best path for himself and I must assert that it seems beyond naive to assume that the club, the corporation, has shown such love for our players that all them should place club demands before their own career trajectory. That is not in the slightest how Juventus has treated players in the last decade or century…All we can hope for is that the situation is sorted this summer at the latest. For now, all talk of the certainties of the discussions are pure conjecture.
Do positions greatly affect a player’s capacity to perform?
There are plenty of grey areas here. It is not as black and white as our shirts. Some players can move between roles without great fuss or any drop in form. Usually where the prime skillsets required are very similar. However, if I take as example Mo Salah (Liverpool) who is happiest and often world class as a RWF in a 433. I do not believe many managers would play him as a RWB in a 3-5-2. His talents are extremely offensive.
Then to consider Danilo, who was fairly decent as a FB, his talents are more focused defensively, with clearly less to offer in the final third. He has transitioned quite well to playing as a CB.
A third to ponder is Locatelli, who often played at Sassuolo in a double pivot at the base of midfield. Has he looked as comfortable constantly as a single pivot at DM since joining Juve? I do not believe so.
The point I am making is that positions do matter for many players.
Finally…Charly Alcaraz
Still unsure how to fully understand this move made by CG late in the winter mercato window. Maybe we had 3-4m we could invest and the focus was the midfield and adding some creativity. Other options fell through so this more outlandish procedure was chosen. A player unable to hold down a starting spot in the second tier of british football, heading to Juve with a price tag we cannot afford presently and will surely never pay in the Summer. His best role may be behind the strikers, yet we have not played with this position in the side all season.
Has he been brought in as an option for a change of system? If not, to be shoe-horned for a few minutes here or there, a wild roll of the dice?
With 13 league games left he has little time to make his mark and if Max continues to deploy him for brief late cameos, the move which appeared as abruptly as bizarrely may well prove a waste of time for player and club, alongside the 3.9m loan fee paid.
The most sensible idea I can conjure is that CG has long wanted him, is looking to sign him as a future player to develop into a pivotal element of the Juve of the near future he envisages and was made aware of other interest so forced to act. This was his way of hedging his bets on a player long admired.
In closing…
Given the myriad issues on and off the field at the club during the last few years, I begrudgingly accept that I could not expect or assume any other manager to improve significantly on our current position in regards to results and standing in league and cup. This is not to suggest I hope Max remains at the club after this season. I would welcome the change, though I do not expect it to happen.
My inklings after Giuntoli finally joined our ranks was that he would need 2-3 years in the least to return us to domestic dominance and a force beyond. Some of the issues at the club have been addressed by Elkann, namely putting into key roles trusted professionals who can work to fix the bureaucratic and legal issues, perhaps also other aspects of the club long gone to ruin, for example the marketing team responsible for this>
The former Napoli SD was clearly brought in to renovate and revive the sporting direction and management. And yet, I worry of the continued presence of Manna, Cherbuni and likely others, left over from the tail end Agnelli era.
Some of the issues can be fixed fairly swiftly, some cannot. The marketing team can be replaced in a week, yet the wage bill cannot be halved as quickly. We are financially unable to simply terminate the contracts of the players on mega wages, or even those on high wages who are not first XI regulars. To pay them off and find replacements is simply not viable.
In some ways, Juve, as a multi-million € corporate/sporting hybrid enterprise, is more akin to a cruiseliner than a cigarette boat. By which I mean, we cannot turn quickly…
It isn’t the season we wanted. Though at least we have been given inspiration to briefly dream it could be.
The future looks more interesting than the recent past and I sincerely subscribe to the conclusion that we are slowly moving in a more positive direction. Patience, comrades…patience!
Forza Juve
(Find me at your peril and horror on twitter, ranting of Juve and beyond HERE.)
