Napoli and Milan come to blow in the first of an unprecedented three-game streak where a solid chunk of both teams’ seasons will be at stake.
Serie A Week 28 – Sunday 2 April 2023 – Stadio Diego Armando Maradona | Preview by Enrico Passarella
As if they needed any help, Napoli further enlarged their lead in the previous round as they waltzed past Torino, which is never easy to do, and Inter and Milan were defeated. They quickly put the slip-up against Lazio in the rearview minor, considering the strong result and performance versus Atalanta. They have the eye on the prize, and it’s just a matter of time, so they don’t need to stress over any misstep or slightly subpar showing.
They won’t abate until they seal Scudetto, but in reality, they could already start managing energies as it’s already in the bag since the suitors aren’t consistent enough to catch them. It’ll be a topic of conversation for next week, with the first leg of the Champions League Round of Eight just around the corner. In this one, the Partenopei will wear their best dress to look to further stomp their authority on the league, as they might think that the previous losses in the crunch matches with the Biancocelesti and Inter dented their shining armor. That’s not really the case, and they have nothing more to prove, but it’s always nice to crush the spirit of the rivals, especially on this special occasion.
The game, which matters more to Milan on paper, gains particular relevance and intrigue considering the upcoming two-legged European encounter between these two sides. If a different outfit was involved, the situation could lead to adjustments, gamesmanship, and mind games. But the Azzurri have really played one way all season long, at most lowering or quickening the pace. Staying true to their nature has been of their fortes.
Victor Osimhen sustained a thigh injury playing with Nigeria so, for the second time in the season, Napoli will face the significant task of replacing him. They passed the first test with flying colors. The return of Giacomo Raspadori from an extended absence comes in handy, although Giovanni Simeone will have first dibs on the starting role. They were exceedingly cautious in the transfer market given the Nigerian’s previous injury history. While that seemed overkill while they were cruising, it will now allow them not to be in a terrible spot despite losing their best weapon. It’s easy to imagine the offense will fall even more on the shoulders of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
The ex-Sassuolo man returning will allow Luciano Spalletti to use the most aggressive version of 4-2-3-1 if they wish to. They have occasionally done it with Zielinski or Elijf Elmas in the hole already, but they aren’t pure attackers like him. There haven’t been many instances when they needed to rev up, but it’ll be an extra string in his bow. The fact that the coach has resisted rotating too much might also come from the fact that he doesn’t fully trust his backups. Other than Elmas, who’s arguably better as a spark plug anyway, the only one that has routinely worked his way into the XI is Mathias Olivera, whose physical skills make him a more defensive-minded option than Mario Rui. Even though he’s not as skilled as the teammate, they don’t lose much in the final third.
Unless there are major departures, which can’t ever be ruled out because they’ll receive mammoth offers, they’ll have the luxury of working primarily on their bench in the summer. They could use better replacements, especially in the midfield, where Stanislav Lobotka doesn’t have a substitute, and Tanguy Ndombélé hasn’t been good enough to push Frank Anguissa and justify activating his option to buy. They already have a shot at getting to the Champions League final given the favorable bracket, but they would really measure up with the top teams in Europe if they made their squad deeper.
Expected XI (4-3-3): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Kim, Olivera; Anguissa, Lobotka, Zielinski; Politano, Simeone, Kvaratskhelia.
Doubts: Olivera/Rui; Politano/Lozano; Simeone/Raspadori.
Injury Report: Osimhen (thigh injury), Beresynksi (knee sprain), Demme (muscle fatigue) – Questionable.
The momentum generated by the schematic change didn’t last long, and Milan are widely expected to go back to his previous scheme. It’s a normal crutch, as people like novelty as long as it works, then it becomes an easy target for criticism when things go south. While the three-man defense had made them sturdier, which they desperately needed, their performances hadn’t improved all that much. Most wins were extemporaneous and had little to do with the scheme. The oddity is that they fell back into their underwhelming ways right after producing their best showing in months versus Atalanta. Perhaps the Champions League bout with Tottenham distracted them and took a tool in the Fiorentina and Salernitana games, but they had a full week to prepare before facing Udinese, and they still had a baffling and apathetic display.
The Rossoneri are teetering on the edge of the top four. They are lucky Inter and Roma aren’t in much better shape. Lazio might do away with their inconsistency now that they no longer have to deal with the cups and will be a problem for everybody. Atalanta are lurking, and Juventus are still a threat despite the point deduction. There’s room for just three teams, so somebody is headed for a disastrous outcome, which would have repercussions at multiple levels. The blow would be particularly massive for them, as going from the Scudetto to finishing 5th or 6th with mostly the same squad would be appalling, and Inter given the expectations.
Going back to a four-man defense isn’t as dramatic of a shift as it looks. Under normal circumstances, so when they aren’t pushing to score, Davide Calabria tends to stay in the back to maintain the balance while Theo Hernandez is free to run amok on the other flank. Their captain isn’t as ‘center-backy’ as Pierre Kalulu, but he’s a hybrid too, so they can also switch formations even during a game if they want. Unlike Napoli, they might indeed try a few things to see what works best ahead of the Champions League meetings.
The young Frenchman will miss a few games with a calf strain, and that’s a key loss since he has been their best defender in recent weeks. Fikayo Tomori is having a weird season, while Malick Thiaw had a few sound games right as he became a regular but then went in the wrong direction, not only for his demerits. It’ll be interesting to see whether he’ll stay in the lineup or if the coach will pick Simon Kjaer over him. It’d be a proper restoration, but the veteran, besides needing some rest to avoid muscular injuries, had done little to deserve to be cast aside.
The tweak has more to do with Rafael Leao than with the rearguard. 3-4-2-1 should have ignited him since it unburdened him of some defensive assignments and put him closer to the thick of it, but that wasn’t the case. He gets lost when he has to go through the middle, and he’s totally comfortable only when very wide. That makes him easier to hold in check, as it takes longer to get to spots to fire off from, but it wasn’t working out. They could have tried to combine the two things by using a trident regardless, but that was more challenging sans Junior Messias, although Brahim Diaz has minor experience as a right winger, but they never tested it. We’ll see whether this will help him, as their offense works only when he’s engaged and impactful; no two ways about it. He’s always been moody, and his lackadaisical showings might come more from the whole ordeal about his extension rather than from his position.
There are some reports about Rade Krunic playing in the hole over Diaz and Charles De Ketelaere, which would be an overcorrection, even though trying to contain Napoli can easily lead to adjustments to be more physical. The hit in the final third would be too significant, though, and it would send the wrong message. It’d be mighty hard for Milan to come away with any point if the game plan was too conservative.
Expected XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Hernandez; Bennacer, Tonali; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao; Giroud.
Doubts: Kjaer/Thiaw, Saelemaekers/Florenzi, Diaz/Krunic.
Injury Report: Ibrahimovic (thigh strain), Kalulu (calf strain) – Out; Messias (thigh strain) – Questionable.
Prediction
Milan will try to muck it up and keep it close, but it’s likely that the Azzurri will just do their thing again.
Napoli Win – Under 2.5 Goals
