Monza are looking to finish strong what has been a remarkable maiden season in Serie A. Fiorentina’s chances of qualifying for a European competition got dampened by the news about Juventus, but they have plenty on their table, and they could do it in a different fashion.
Serie A Week 31 – Sunday 18 April 2023 – U-Power Stadium | Preview by Enrico Passarella
Monza
Monza came in with plenty of expectations considering the wealth and corporate knowledge of their big kahunas, Silvio Berlusconi and Adriano Galliani. They met them, even though they had to go through an early coaching change for their vision to come to fruition, and they didn’t really splurge on the transfer market. After a slow start, they sacked Giovanni Stroppa and rolled the dice, promoting Raffaele Palladino from their Primavera team. It couldn’t have worked out any better. He’s highly empathetic with his players since he hasn’t retired that long ago, plus he employs the Atalanta style, which leads to good results every time the squad buys into the intensity such scheme demands. The one-on-one duels all over the pitch fixed their defensive phase and balance, which was their Achilles heel at the beginning of the campaign.
They have above-average contributors across the lineup but only a pair of high-end ones. It’s the sound collective play that powers them. That puts the young coach on the map, but since there might not be many changes among the top sides, they should be able to enjoy him a while longer, and he too could use more experience before jumping to a top team. One of their most remarkable achievements is that absences have not particularly impacted them, as a few linchpins alternated on the shelf. That’s unusual for newly promoted teams, which struggle when one or multiple key starters are missing. There’s a natural gap between players, but they are deep and have been able to rearrange the scheme to cater to their strengths no matter the circumstances. The versatility of some of their regulars helped a ton.
The gaffer isn’t done experimenting, and it feels like they haven’t found their final and most dangerous configuration up front just yet. They have leaned a lot on Andrea Petagna, one of their big investments, but he’s a bit peculiar. He’s a massive presence and combines well with his teammates but scores very little. Dany Mota Carvalho, a very agile forward that can play on the flank too, would have probably gotten more run had he managed to stay healthy for multiple matches in a row. They are more unpredictable when they go with him, or an attacking midfielder, as a false-nine, but they can look toothless at times too since their other attackers like to operate outside the box. Andrea Colpani is getting more minutes than usual lately because he’s a very good cutter with a nose for putting the ball in the net. A goal poacher that can also interplay with others would take their offense to the next level.
They have been able to cope with the situation because they get plenty of offensive production from other roles, starting with the flanks. Gianluca Caprari eventually got it going, and he’s a major threat with his dribbling and shooting prowess. Carlos Augusto stacks up against any left wing-back or fullback in Italy. Arguably only Theo Hernandez is as influential in his own team’s design. He’s a true menace when he gets deep on the pitch, which is really the case almost in every action, and he’s often the one to populate the box while their forwards roam. Patrick Ciurria isn’t on the same level, but he’s a weapon too. His trajectory has been very peculiar since he used to be a run-of-the-mill winger in Serie B, but Palladino reinvented him in a slightly different role, and his energy, vision, and crosses are big assets. It doesn’t hurt that he can star as a no.10 when they want to be more defensive-minded.
Their midfield is their true engine, and it has pulled its weight even when undermanned. It looks like they have lost Stefano Sensi to a thigh injury, and they will take a hit in class, but they have always held their own when two among the Inter loanee, Matteo Pessina, their true workhorse, and Nicolò Rovella were present. All three are excellent passers also all-around players that have excellent work-rate. The performances of the belt are generally the barometer of any side, and they have a good one.
They aren’t particularly elite in the back, but they have plenty of specialists lifted by their style. Goalie Michele Di Gregorio had been solid for a few years, but he has been a revelation and fended off the competition from a dependable veteran like Alessio Cragno. Pablo Mari is a perfect anchor of a three-man line because he’s massive and can treat the ball well, while Armando Izzo, Marlon, and Luca Caldirola are muscular but mobile enough to be capable braccetti. As in other areas, the whole is greater than the sum of its part, and a large part of the credit goes to the manager.
Thanks to the pitiful level of this year’s relegation struggle and multiple strings of good results, they have been playing with house money for a long time. It shows as they can perform more freely and proactively than an average minnow. The efficacy of their scheme, the quality of their roster, and the boldness of the gaffer make it so that they can measure up against any opponent. But they have already reached a good level of maturity as a team. They don’t go all-out on offense all the time but instead tailor their pace and aggression to the adversary du jour and especially to the various phases of the game. They have already sneaked up on a few of high-caliber ones.
Expected XI (3-4-2-1): Di Gregorio; Izzo, Mari, Caldirola; Ciurria, Pessina, Rovella, Carlos Augusto; Colpani, Caprari; Mota.
Doubts: Caldirola/Marlon, Colpani/Machin, Mota/Petagna.
Injury Report: Sensi (thigh injury) – Doubtful.
Fiorentina
Even though they had done more than enough to win, the two results against Spezia and Atalanta had already taken the wind out of Fiorentina’s sails as far as a possible top-six finish is concerned, then Juventus got their points back, at least for the time being, and that might all she wrote. The Bianconeri’s faith still hangs in the balance, and the seventh spot might ultimately be enough, but it might be time for them to start packing up their things in Serie A, relatively speaking, and focus more on Coppa Italia and the European Conference League. That’s especially true this week, as the game is sandwiched between a continental fixture, where they had a big scare and had to exert more energy than anticipated, and the return of the semifinals against Cremonese, where they begin from a comfortable spot too. They might ultimately have to win one of the two trophies to play in Europe next year. They won’t be favorites domestically, and the remaining sides in the other cup are on a similar level. They’ll have a solid shot if they perform to their full potential.
The Arthur Cabral show continued last week in recent games. Finally, having a prolific center-forward significantly contributed to turning their fortunes around. Not many sides would have been this patient, but the fact that they operate more like a normal team in other sports than a schizophrenic football one that always lives by day paid big dividends in this case. The ex-Basel star needed a long-time to adjust to the Italian league and get to the level he needed to be physically. They’ll probably have to move on from Luka Jovic unless he gracefully accepts to be a backup, but having a clear top option will allow them to go into the summer with less angst and maybe target an unproven youngster to serve as his deputy.
It’s not glamorous because they have a bunch of middle-aged players and no starlets, but the squad they have built over the years, primarily thanks to the Dusan Vlahovic and Federico Chiesa money, is very sturdy. Spreading the wealth around rather than investing lavishly in one piece was the right way to go. Since Nikola Milenkovic signed a long-term contract and Nicolas Gonzalez seems pretty committed, although his sale would fetch a big buck, the thorniest matter next summer will be Sofyan Amrabat, who wouldn’t have minded moving in January after a great World Cup. He would be a sizeable loss but, all things considered, he’s not irreplaceable given his fairly limited role.
This match could be a good opportunity for some backups to shine, and, if they do qualify for a European competition again, they’ll have some work to do there. While they have three center-backs, two no.10s, and a few wingers nearly at the same level, but the difference between the starter and the reserves is noticeable in other roles. There’s a gulf between Dodo and Lorenzo Venuti, Aleksa Terzic is promising but hasn’t gotten enough chances to prove his worth, they are in trouble when either Amrabat or Rolando Mandragora is missing, as Gaetano Castrovilli is better in more dynamic roles. Jonathan Ikoné, Riccardo Saponara, and Riccardo Sottil have had their moments in the past two years, but they don’t have a clear go-to left winger, as Gonzalez is better on the right flank. If they plot to invest, that should be their main priority, on top of a goalie, although they’d have to find a really good one because Pietro Terracciano is no slouch.
Similar to Monza, the fast-paced and brazen strategy of Vincenzo Italiano masks defects and makes up for some shortcomings. The boss would be a swell choice for a top team eager to bounce back after a down season. The critics have moved on to hyping up other up-and-comers, but, even though they did struggle at first, this was a very formative year for him as he had to adjust his methods to playing thrice a week. He has more tools in his arsenal now.
Amrabat, Josip Brekalo, and Ikoné should be on the squad list after missing the last game with various minor injuries. The first one could reclaim his starting job right away, but it’s not a given. The fact that Gaetano Castrovilli was partially spared versus Lech Poznan suggests he will be in the XI. Saponara, Terzic, and Christian Kouamé are other players that could get the nod if the coach decides to rotate heavily, considering their busy schedule.
Expected XI (4-2-3-1): Terracciano; Dodo, Milenkovic, Igor, Biraghi; Castrovilli, Mandragora; Gonzalez, Barak, Saponara; Cabral.
Doubts: Igor/Martinez Quarta, Mandragora/Ambrata, Saponara/Ikoné.
Injury Report: Bonaventura (thigh injury) – Doubtful, Sirigu (Achilles’ tendon tear) – OUT.
Prediction
Monza Win – Under 2.5 Goals
