Neither team can afford to leave points on the table to tend to their respective seasonal targets, but the game is probably still going to be a major war of attrition considering who’s in charge.
Serie A Week 18– Saturday 30 December 2023 – Allianz Stadium | Preview by Enrico Passarella
Juventus
Juventus almost got got by a minnow for the second game in a row versus Frosinone, which would have been an early De Profundis to the title duel. But Dusan Vlahovic came through with a great header, and the Massimiliano Allegri critics will have to wait to unleash all their fury.
While eking it out has worked out for the most part, other than in the Genoa fixture, he should read the signals and begin transitioning to a more open strategy. While he’ll never be as bold as Thiago Motta or Roberto De Zerbi, just to make two popular examples, he has it in him to be more offensive-minded. After all, he was the one who concocted the 4-2-3-1 with Mario Mandzukic wide and three other strikers on the pitch together back in the day, and it paid big dividends.
Their defense hasn’t suddenly become leaky, as it is still firmly the second most trustworthy in the league, but they have kept just one clean sheet in the past six matches. After being pristine for multiple rounds on the trot, they conceded to Cagliari, Monza, Genoa, and Frosinone, not exactly a murderer’s row. It hasn’t been a big problem because they have prevailed anyway by being more active in the final third, but the alarm bells should start ringing.
While they haven’t had gaffes, Danilo hasn’t been great since coming back from injury, and Gleison Bremer hasn’t been dominant either. He must be playing through something since he’s seemingly cramping up at the end of every tilt. The goals they allowed have mostly come from collective imperfections, and something has been slightly off compared to their previous impressive stretch. Hopefully, their boss won’t just double down and look for ways to shore up or better protect the defense but will opt to offset that with adjustments to spice things up on the other end.
Vlahovic quieted the noise with his latest goal, but it doesn’t dramatically alter the general assessment of his season. Considering how much he earns and his price tag, it shouldn’t even be a question about whether he should start, especially with Federico Chiesa sidelined. At this point, he has played regularly enough that his physical problems are no longer an excuse. While it’s true that their overall philosophy does him no favor, as he’s a high-volume guy rather than a clutch one and needs more feed to produce, he hasn’t personally progressed enough either during his time in Turin.
His work outside the box is almost negligible, especially back to the goal, where he’s almost always overwhelmed by the defenders. At least he’s showing more determination in the pressing and establishing a connection with Chiesa, or he’d be almost inexistent without the ball, and his decision-making still isn’t great and vastly lags behind his technique when it comes to finishing. Since they are in a new financial era, he either competes for the capocannoniere title or is a burden on their balance sheets. The talks to extend his contract and reduce his impact are going to be fascinating, and it’d be a surprise if the management succeeded in its intent.
Allegri has real lineup doubts in his hands considering Andrea Cambiaso’s suspension and Federico Chiesa and Manuel Locatelli’s imperfect fitness. It’s about time to unleash Timothy Weah, but it wouldn’t be stunning if they went with Weston McKennie wide, although that would force them to field Fabio Miretti, who has been lackluster and outmatched in recent fixtures. They are once again limited by their lack of options in the midfield, but it’s not yet their fault. They should be swift in January, but they don’t seem to have made up their mind about whom to add.
The best part of their season, other than keeping up with a much better side by hook and by crook, is that the emergency has forced them to shotgun some youngsters. Confirming Kenan Yildiz in the XI would be an easy decision with Chiesa not 100 percent. Considering his versatility and their scarce alternatives, he should have already been a consistent change-of-pace guy off the bench. His skill set is manifestly electrifying.
Expected XI (3-5-2): Szczesny; Gatti, Bremer, Danilo; Weah, McKennie, Locatelli, Rabiot, Kostic; Vlahovic, Yildiz.
Doubts: Weah/Miretti, Locatelli/Nicolussi Caviglia, Yildiz/Chiesa
Injury Report: Chiesa (knee soreness), Locatelli (oblique contusion), Vlahovic (foot bruise) – Probable; Sandro (thigh injury) – Doubtful; De Sciglio (ACL tear) Sandro – Out.
Suspensions: Cambiaso, Fagioli, Pogba.
Roma
It took a fluky goal and two red cards against the opponents for Roma to finally beat a top team. While they were a bit lucky, their performance against Napoli was sound, and they arguably deserved to win even before things broke their way.
Other than the victory, Lorenzo Pellegrini snapping out of his slump was the best possible news they could get considering their never-ending injury crisis and that they starve for some creativity, especially without Paulo Dybala. His first half of the campaign has been forgettable due to physical problems and lack of conditioning. He’ll contribute a lot more than any potential January reinforcement if he fares close to his previous levels with some consistency. Considering his troubles and Renato Sanches and Houssem Aouar’s woes, their midfield has been hanging by a thread, hoping nothing would happen to Leandro Paredes and Bryan Cristante. They are fine and reliable players but shouldn’t be really so essential in sides that compete for something tasty.
We’ll see whether they’ll cut bait on the Portuguese to save money and avoid any risk of having to buy him out, which is probably already non-existent given how little he has played. They won’t be able to do much in January, and the defense is a higher priority since Chris Smalling is MIA and Evan N’Dicka will depart for AFCON soon.
The whole Leonardo Bonucci seems to have gone up in smoke, but, even though he has looked washed, it would have been a defensible addition because it would have been very cheap, and it’ll be hard for them to find somebody as plug-and-play and experienced in a three-man defense in a hurry.
Since Milan endured more serious injuries and the players in question won’t come back anytime soon, they have the most room for natural improvement out of any top side if their main contributors could just stay healthy and be in acceptable form at the same time. That’s a refrain for Dybala in recent years, who’s feeling better and will return to this one. They have the pieces to ration him a little better than what they have done so far. They’ll be tempted to start him given the magnitude of the tilt and because he has a gripe with Juventus, but they should keep him for the late push.
Pellegrini roaring back gives them the option of deploying him over Andrea Belotti, Stephan El Shaarawy, and Sardar Azmoun as Romelu Lukaku’s partner, going with a more robust look. Edoardo Bove has been totally fine, if not even more than that, in recent matches, and his energy is always very welcome. That’s the case also for Nicola Zalewski, who might not be great defensively but always brings the juice and does his part offensively, while Leonardo Spinazzola is more hit-or-miss.
Considering the two coaches, it might be the cagiest contest of the season despite the offensive talent at their disposal. On the other hand, if neither team asserts its dominance, which is likely, the final stages, when the gloves will come off, should be pretty entertaining. Both outfits need a victory to help with their respective objectives, especially Roma.
Expected XI (3-5-2): Patricio; Mancini, Llorente, N’Dicka; Kristensen, Cristante, Paredes, Bove, Zalewski; Lukaku, Dybala.
Doubts: Zalewski/Spinazzola, Bove/Pellegrini, Dybala/Belotti.
Injury Report: Dybala (thigh strain) – Probable; Renato Sanches (illness) – Questionable; Kumbula, Abraham (ACL tears), Smalling (patellar tendon injury), Aouar (thigh strain) – OUT.
Prediction
Draw – Under 2.5 Goals
