If you are to believe the conspiracies, it is judged that the new format for the Champions League has been built for the express purpose of keeping the big teams in the competition for longer. There are a couple of extra games, yes, and that’s always something that keeps UEFA and the television broadcasters happy. But for critics, the fact that you can finish 24th in a league of 32 teams and still have a shot at qualification (through the playoffs) means the competition lacks a true sense of jeopardy.
That said, both AC Milan and Bologna have started poorly. The former has no points from two games, and the latter has a solitary point. There are no truly easy games in the Champions League, of course, and both were predicted in football betting markets to lose to Liverpool, for instance. Yet, it looks daunting at the moment for both clubs to make the top eight and automatic qualification. Moreover, if things don’t turn around fast, they could miss out on the playoff round.
Bologna will face Emery’s in-form Aston Villa
Of the pair, Bologna arguably have the toughest remaining games. Certainly, every tie looks losable on paper. Aston Villa away in Matchday 3 looks like a nasty one, especially when you consider Unai Emery’s men have taken to European football like ducks to water. After that, Bologna will host Monaco on the 5th November. The French side are in brilliant form, leading PSG at the top of the Ligue 1 standings at the time of writing. But you really suspect Bologna must pick up something here, especially if things don’t go well in Birmingham a fortnight earlier.
As we reach late November, Bologna will host another French side, Lille, at home. Again, this is one where Vincenzo Italiano must sense an opportunity to get three points. Lille bounced back from a loss away to Sporting Lisbon in the first round of fixtures to seal a historic victory over Real Madrid in Matchday 2. Bologna will be slight favourites at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, but they must make home advantage count. A trip away to Benfica comes next, and a team that has two wins from two, including a 4-0 hammering of Atletico Madrid.
Into January, and Bologna will finish up with ties against Borussia Dortmund at home and away to Sporting Lisbon, the latter of which is really pulling up trees this season. You get the sense that Bologna will need to have something in the way of momentum by the time they get to January, or the Champions League adventure will fizzle out.
Milan have an easier pathway
As for Milan, defeats to Liverpool and Bayer Leverkusen were not unexpected to open their Champions League journey, and they have the chance to get some points on the board on Matchday 3 at home to Club Brugge. This feels like a must-win tie for Milan, especially when you consider Real Madrid at the Bernabéu comes next. There are chances to pick up points on Matchday 5 and 6 with an away tie against Slovan Bratislava and before Milan welcome Red Star Belgrade to the San Siro.
Milan will finish up with a home tie against Girona and an away trip to face Dinamo Zagreb on the 29th of January. It’s an easier run of fixtures than Bologna’s, sure, but you get the impression that Milan will need to pick up at least 14 points from their remaining games if they want to make the top eight and avoid the playoffs. Of the pair, Milan look more likely to make a playoff spot at least – although, their form must improve – but both teams have mini-mountains to climb if they want to be playing Champions League football in the spring.
